Weather Information - Just for Kids!
Forecast Discussion - NOAA's National Weather Service Latest: AFDRNK| AFDLWX| AFDAKQ| [top] 000 FXUS61 KRNK 091418 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1018 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF HERMINE WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... RATHER DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINT FRONT ACROSS NRN NC THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...AND EXPECT JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING BY OVER THE SRN CWA FROM THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE THAT IS LOCATED OVER MO/AR. DESPITE COOL ADVECTION EXPECT HEATING OF VERY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ESPCLY EAST WHERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTRW COMFORTABLE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S WEST TO LOW/MID 80S EAST UNDER A GUSTY NW BREEZE AT TIMES. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND IN FROM THE N/NW OVERNIGHT ALLOWING DRY AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDED HIGH/MID CLOUDS SLIDING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PER RESIDUAL MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND HERMINE MOISTURE JUST TO THE WEST...OTRW CALLING IT MOSTLY CLEAR/COOL. DEWPOINTS AND JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING WOULD SUPPORT A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AS SEEN VIA COOP MOS WHILE LEARY OF SOME MIXING LINGERING GIVEN THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STILL WELL TO THE NW. THUS FOLLOWING A BLEND OF MOS ON LOW TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE RIDGES AND THE COLDER MET VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IT WILL BE AN EPIC BATTLE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE VERSES MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE. MOST MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SOME MODELS HAVE THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL RUN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST FRIDAY EVENING EVERYWHERE THEN RIDGE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMES IN ALOFT. BY SATURDAY MORNING RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES COULD BE 5F-10F WITH VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. A CANOPY OF THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT/REMNANTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY COULD IMPACT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES. A FASTER SYSTEM WILL HAVE FRIDAY NIGHT WARMER AND SATURDAY COOLER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT NOW DOWN IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR FOG TO MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS...ESPCLY KLWB AND KDAN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER. OTRW RUNNING WITH VFR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THRU FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME CI ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY. WITH A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TODAY...LOOKS LIKE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. MAY AGAIN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR IN LOCAL VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR SO ONLY INCLUDING A MENTION AT KLWB FOR NOW. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER (10-20 MPH) AND GUSTY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/JH/KM FIRE WEATHER... [top] 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 091356 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 956 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TODAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION...IN BETWEEN THE UPR LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRYING CONDITIONS AND MSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH GIVEN THE DEEP NW FLOW AND EARLY-SEASON INSTBY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...CANNOT RULE OUT SCT TO OCNLY BKN LAKE-ORIGINATED CU ADVECTING ALL THE WAY INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. IN THIS REGION... EXPECT MORE OF A FLUCTUATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN (MSTLY-PTLY SUNNY)...WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOR NOW...HAVE STUCK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT LAMP OR LAV GUIDANCE) WOULD SUGGEST MID 70S TOPS. ELSEWHERE...LOCAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS 80-85F...HIGHEST S/W OF A FVX-PTB-FKN LINE. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS OVER INLAND AREAS (W OF CHES BAY)...AS AGAIN EXPECT MIN RH`S IN THE 20-25 PCT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO JUSTIFY RED FLAG WARNINGS (AROUND 10-12 MPH)...HOWEVER AGAIN EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD GUST FACTOR TODAY WITH THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER (GUSTS 20-25 MPH). OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER (MORE LIKE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30)...HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME RH`S WILL BE HIGHER IN THIS REGION (30-40%) GIVEN MORE STRATO-CU CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR AS LLVL WINDS CROSS CHES BAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCSTS. AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...SFC WINDS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA (ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF CHES BAY). THEREFORE...EXPECT THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THUS OPTED TO NOT UNDERCUT MOS BLEND TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER NICE DAY ON FRI...WITH THE LLVL THICKNESS PROFILES GIVEN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S LWR MD ERN SHORE AND FROM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS KEEP PRECIP WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR TDY INTO SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVR THE AREA. FOR TDY INTO FRI MORNG...EXPECT NW OR N WNDS 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN WITH STRNGEST WNDS AT SBY. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN...WHEN NEXT COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE CHES BAY AND NRN TWO CSTL ZNS THRU 7 AM THIS MORNG...DUE TO GUSTY NW OR N WNDS BEHIND THE FRNT. THEN...THE MIXING PROFILE BECOMES MORE STABLE OVR THE WATER DURING TDY. ANOTHER NW OR NW WND SURGE ARRIVES TNGT. IT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG...AND WNDS SHUD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHING AND MOVNG THRU SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER TODAY COMPARED TO WED... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THIS STATEMENT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN VA EXCEPT FAR SE VA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... WITH TODAY`S HIGH OF 90 F AT RICHMOND...THERE HAVE NOW BEEN 71 DAYS THIS YEAR WITH A HIGH OF 90 F OR HIGHER. THIS IS THE MOST ON RECORD AT RIC...SURPASSING THE 70 DAYS OF 90+ BACK IN 1977. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH/JDM NEAR TERM...BKH/JDM SHORT TERM...BKH/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG FIRE WEATHER... CLIMATE... [top] 000 FXUS61 KLWX 091312 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 912 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BECOME CLEARER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SCT CU DECK AROUND 6-8KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT CONVECTION. NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH 6 PM FOR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... RECENT DRY SPELL HAS LEAD TO LOW FUEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS. THE GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NWL NEAR TERM...BJL SHORT TERM...GMS/BJL LONG TERM...NWL AVIATION...GMS/BJL MARINE...GMS/BJL FIRE WEATHER...BJL 000 FXUS61 KRNK 091052 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 652 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF HERMINE WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DEWPOINT FRONT ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTH TODAY MAKING WAY FOR VERY ARID AIR ACROSS THE REGION AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. EXPECT TO SEE PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WELL AHEAD OF THE HERMINE REMNANT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A LOT OF THIS TO FADE UPON MOVING THRU THE UPPER NW FLOW CONFLUENCE AND OVERTOP SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GOING MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST AFTER ANY EARLY FOG ACROSS THE SW FADES. DESPITE COOL ADVECTION EXPECT HEATING OF VERY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ESPCLY EAST WHERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTRW COMFORTABLE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S WEST TO LOW/MID 80S EAST UNDER A GUSTY NW BREEZE AT TIMES. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND IN FROM THE N/NW OVERNIGHT ALLOWING DRY AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDED HIGH/MID CLOUDS SLIDING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PER RESIDUAL MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND HERMINE MOISTURE JUST TO THE WEST...OTRW CALLING IT MOSTLY CLEAR/COOL. DEWPOINTS AND JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING WOULD SUPPORT A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AS SEEN VIA COOP MOS WHILE LEARY OF SOME MIXING LINGERING GIVEN THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STILL WELL TO THE NW. THUS FOLLOWING A BLEND OF MOS ON LOW TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE RIDGES AND THE COLDER MET VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IT WILL BE AN EPIC BATTLE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE VERSES MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE. MOST MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SOME MODELS HAVE THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL RUN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST FRIDAY EVENING EVERYWHERE THEN RIDGE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMES IN ALOFT. BY SATURDAY MORNING RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES COULD BE 5F-10F WITH VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. A CANOPY OF THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT/REMNANTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY COULD IMPACT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES. A FASTER SYSTEM WILL HAVE FRIDAY NIGHT WARMER AND SATURDAY COOLER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT NOW DOWN IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR FOG TO MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS...ESPCLY KLWB AND KDAN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER. OTRW RUNNING WITH VFR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THRU FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME CI ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY. WITH A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TODAY...LOOKS LIKE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. MAY AGAIN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR IN LOCAL VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR SO ONLY INCLUDING A MENTION AT KLWB FOR NOW. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER (10-20 MPH) AND GUSTY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/JH/KM FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KLWX 090920 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 520 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... UPDATE... TOOK DOWN THE SCA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS - UNTIL MID MORNING. PREV DISC... A WAVE OF VERY DRY AIR CARRIED BY GUSTY WINDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO SHARPLY RISE YESTERDAY AFTN - INTO THE M/U90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED BACK INTO THE U40S... WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE THEY WILL STAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS - FLUCTUATING ONLY A FEW DEGREES DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER SFC WINDS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED OVER LAND...GENERALLY DROPPING TO JUST A FEW MPH ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPING TO QUICKLY DROP TEMPS ABOUT 30 DEGREES IN SINCE LAST EVE...W/ STILL A FEW MORE DEGREES TO GO BEFORE REACHING THE OVERNIGHT LOW. THE SLOW EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER TODAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES LESS THAN ON WED - A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE YESTERDAY/S REMINDER THAT SUMMER HASN/T QUITE LEFT. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BE STATIONED JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA - WHICH WILL KEEP THE DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WED IS A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR WE/VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... IN SIMILAR FASHION - THU WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS WINDY THAN WED...THU NIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS WINDY THAN WED NIGHT. THIS BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT MUCH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC...STILL SLOWLY EXITING TO THE NORTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY GETS DRAWN DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. THE LAST WAVE OF UPPER ENERGY FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COME MIDDAY FRI...W/ ANOTHER REGIME CHANGE QUICKLY ON ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. UNTIL THEN...MORE DRY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. SPRAWLING UPPER LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FURTHER EAST LATER FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BECOME CLEARER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WINDS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE REGION /OUTSIDE OF AREAS CLOSER TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/. THO MOST SITES ARE SHOWING WINDS NEAR 5KT OR LESS...A FAIRLY TURBULENT UPPER LOW STILL EXISTS TO THE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM WAVES OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLC /10-15KT/ AS THEY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE - W/ PEAK GUSTS BACK INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THOUGH MORE INTERMITTENT THAN ON WED. MODELS SHOWING A SCT 6-8KFT DECK SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...SO SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT CONVECTION. NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. && .MARINE... SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TODAY/TONIGHT AND FRI. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LOWER WIND VALUES /5-10KT/ WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE WATERS WILL BE IN AT LEAST MARGINAL SCA WELL INTO FRI. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL FINALLY EXIT OFF THE COAST BY EARLY SAT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WX STILL A CONCERN AFTER THE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON WED W/ DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH RANGE...AND NOT TO MENTION HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE A BIT LESS SEVERE FOR THU...W/ REL HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S /AS OPPOSED TO THE TEENS/ - WIND GUSTS 20-25MPH AND HIGHS BARELY REACHING 80 BY MID AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS POINT MORE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY...AS OPPOSED TO THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE AREA REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536. && $$ UPDATE...GMS PREV DISCUSSION...GMS/LISTEMAA 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 090854 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 454 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...NOW PUSHING S OF CAPE HATTERAS. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SFC FRONT (MORE OF A DWPT BNDRY) HAS NOW PUSHED INTO SOUTHSIDE VA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT N-S ACROSS THE FCST AREA... FROM THE UPR 40S N TO THE MID 60S S. TODAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION...IN BETWEEN THE UPR LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRYING CONDITIONS AND MSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH GIVEN THE DEEP NW FLOW AND EARLY-SEASON INSTBY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...CANNOT RULE OUT SCT TO OCNLY BKN LAKE-ORIGINATED CU ADVECTING ALL THE WAY INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. IN THIS REGION... EXPECT MORE OF A FLUCTUATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN (MSTLY-PTLY SUNNY)...WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOR NOW...HAVE STUCK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT LAMP OR LAV GUIDANCE) WOULD SUGGEST MID 70S TOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE...LOCAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS 80-85F...HIGHEST S/W OF A FVX-PTB-FKN LINE. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS OVER INLAND AREAS (W OF CHES BAY)...AS AGAIN EXPECT MIN RH`S IN THE 20-25 PCT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO JUSTIFY RED FLAG WARNINGS (AROUND 10-12 MPH)...HOWEVER AGAIN EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD GUST FACTOR TODAY WITH THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER (GUSTS 20-25 MPH). OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER (MORE LIKE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30)...HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME RH`S WILL BE HIGHER IN THIS REGION (30-40%) GIVEN MORE STRATO-CU CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR AS LLVL WINDS CROSS CHES BAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCSTS. AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...SFC WINDS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA (ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF CHES BAY). THEREFORE...EXPECT THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...THUS OPTED TO NOT UNDERCUT MOS BLEND TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER NICE DAY ON FRI...WITH THE LLVL THICKNESS PROFILES GIVEN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S LWR MD ERN SHORE AND FROM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS KEEP PRECIP WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR TDY INTO SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVR THE AREA. FOR TDY INTO FRI MORNG...EXPECT NW OR N WNDS 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN WITH STRNGEST WNDS AT SBY. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN...WHEN NEXT COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE CHES BAY AND NRN TWO CSTL ZNS THRU 7 AM THIS MORNG...DUE TO GUSTY NW OR N WNDS BEHIND THE FRNT. THEN...THE MIXING PROFILE BECOMES MORE STABLE OVR THE WATER DURING TDY. ANOTHER NW OR NW WND SURGE ARRIVES TNGT. IT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG...AND WNDS SHUD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHING AND MOVNG THRU SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER TODAY COMPARED TO WED... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THIS STATEMENT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN VA EXCEPT FAR SE VA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... WITH TODAY`S HIGH OF 90 F AT RICHMOND...THERE HAVE NOW BEEN 71 DAYS THIS YEAR WITH A HIGH OF 90 F OR HIGHER. THIS IS THE MOST ON RECORD AT RIC...SURPASSING THE 70 DAYS OF 90+ BACK IN 1977. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH NEAR TERM...BKH SHORT TERM...BKH/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG FIRE WEATHER...JDM CLIMATE...LKB 000 FXUS61 KLWX 090731 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 331 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... A WAVE OF VERY DRY AIR CARRIED BY GUSTY WINDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO SHARPLY RISE YESTERDAY AFTN - INTO THE M/U90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE VA/MD PIEDMONT. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED BACK INTO THE U40S... WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE THEY WILL STAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS - FLUCTUATING ONLY A FEW DEGREES DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER SFC WINDS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED OVER LAND...GENERALLY DROPPING TO JUST A FEW MPH ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPING TO QUICKLY DROP TEMPS ABOUT 30 DEGREES IN SINCE LAST EVE...W/ STILL A FEW MORE DEGREES TO GO BEFORE REACHING THE OVERNIGHT LOW. THE SLOW EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER TODAY WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES LESS THAN ON WED - A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE YESTERDAY/S REMINDER THAT SUMMER HASN/T QUITE LEFT. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BE STATIONED JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA - WHICH WILL KEEP THE DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WED IS A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR WE/VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... IN SIMILAR FASHION - THU WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS WINDY THAN WED...THU NIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS WINDY THAN WED NIGHT. THIS BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT MUCH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC...STILL SLOWLY EXITING TO THE NORTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY GETS DRAWN DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. THE LAST WAVE OF UPPER ENERGY FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COME MIDDAY FRI...W/ ANOTHER REGIME CHANGE QUICKLY ON ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. UNTIL THEN...MORE DRY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY. SPRAWLING UPPER LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FURTHER EAST LATER FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BECOME CLEARER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WINDS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE REGION /OUTSIDE OF AREAS CLOSER TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/. THO MOST SITES ARE SHOWING WINDS NEAR 5KT OR LESS...A FAIRLY TURBULENT UPPER LOW STILL EXISTS TO THE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM WAVES OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLC /10-15KT/ AS THEY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE - W/ PEAK GUSTS BACK INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THOUGH MORE INTERMITTENT THAN ON WED. MODELS SHOWING A SCT 6-8KFT DECK SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...SO SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT CONVECTION. NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. && .MARINE... SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TODAY/TONIGHT AND FRI. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LOWER WIND VALUES /5-10KT/ WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE WATERS WILL BE IN AT LEAST MARGINAL SCA WELL INTO FRI. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL FINALLY EXIT OFF THE COAST BY EARLY SAT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WX STILL A CONCERN AFTER THE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON WED W/ DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH RANGE...AND NOT TO MENTION HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE A BIT LESS SEVERE FOR THU...W/ REL HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S /AS OPPOSED TO THE TEENS/ - WIND GUSTS 20-25MPH AND HIGHS BARELY REACHING 80 BY MID AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS POINT MORE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY...AS OPPOSED TO THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE AREA REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LISTEMAA NEAR TERM...GMS SHORT TERM...GMS LONG TERM...LISTEMAA AVIATION...GMS/LISTEMAA MARINE...GMS/LISTEMAA FIRE WEATHER...GMS 000 FXUS61 KRNK 090706 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 306 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF HERMINE WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DEWPOINT FRONT ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTH TODAY MAKING WAY FOR VERY ARID AIR ACROSS THE REGION AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER EVENING RNK SOUNDING. EXPECT TO SEE PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WELL AHEAD OF THE HERMINE REMNANT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A LOT OF THIS TO FADE UPON MOVING THRU THE UPPER NW FLOW CONFLUENCE AND OVERTOP SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GOING MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST AFTER ANY EARLY FOG ACROSS THE SW FADES. DESPITE COOL ADVECTION EXPECT HEATING OF VERY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ESPCLY EAST WHERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTRW COMFORTABLE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S WEST TO LOW/MID 80S EAST UNDER A GUSTY NW BREEZE AT TIMES. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND IN FROM THE N/NW OVERNIGHT ALLOWING DRY AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDED HIGH/MID CLOUDS SLIDING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PER RESIDUAL MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND HERMINE MOISTURE JUST TO THE WEST...OTRW CALLING IT MOSTLY CLEAR/COOL. DEWPOINTS AND JUST ENOUGH DECOUPLING WOULD SUPPORT A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AS SEEN VIA COOP MOS WHILE LEARY OF SOME MIXING LINGERING GIVEN THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STILL WELL TO THE NW. THUS FOLLOWING A BLEND OF MOS ON LOW TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE RIDGES AND THE COLDER MET VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IT WILL BE AN EPIC BATTLE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE VERSES MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE. MOST MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE WINNING THE BATTLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS ENTERING THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SOME MODELS HAVE THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL RUN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING BEST FRIDAY EVENING EVERYWHERE THEN RIDGE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMES IN ALOFT. BY SATURDAY MORNING RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES COULD BE 5F-10F WITH VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. A CANOPY OF THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT/REMNANTS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY COULD IMPACT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES. A FASTER SYSTEM WILL HAVE FRIDAY NIGHT WARMER AND SATURDAY COOLER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT NOW NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. SINCE EXPECT MOISTURE TO DECREASE AT KDAN BEHIND THE FRONT SHORTLY...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO MVFR THERE. OTRW APPEARS ENOUGH MIXING/DRY AIR TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT THE OTHER TAF SITES SINCE MOST OF THE RAIN FROM EARLIER WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT MAINLY LATE GIVEN RATHER LARGE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD THERE ATTM. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT KROA AND EXPECT WONT SEE SPEEDS DROP OFF TOO MUCH UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK SO BUMPED UP GUSTS OVERNIGHT...OTRW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES THRU MORNING. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME WESTERN CI...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER (10-20 MPH) AND MOST GUSTY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKER ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL BACK TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/JH/KM FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 090554 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 154 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF HERMINE WILL SLIDE EAST AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MAIN FOCUS CHANGE WAS TO KEEP AT BATCH OF CLOUDINESS IN THE FAR SRN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS STILL LOCATED FROM FVX SOUTHWEST TO VJI. 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND THIS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S OVER THE SE WV MTNS INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING THE FINAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DEEPENING MOISTURE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING AND IN ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NCEP SREF SHOWED CHANCE OF RAIN NOT REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LOWER...STILL EXPECT CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT NOW NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. SINCE EXPECT MOISTURE TO DECREASE AT KDAN BEHIND THE FRONT SHORTLY...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO MVFR THERE. OTRW APPEARS ENOUGH MIXING/DRY AIR TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT THE OTHER TAF SITES SINCE MOST OF THE RAIN FROM EARLIER WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT MAINLY LATE GIVEN RATHER LARGE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD THERE ATTM. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT KROA AND EXPECT WONT SEE SPEEDS DROP OFF TOO MUCH UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK SO BUMPED UP GUSTS OVERNIGHT...OTRW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES THRU MORNING. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME WESTERN CI...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN WEAKER ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN TODAY HAS INCREASED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ONLY TEMPORARILY IN PARTS OF THE REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/JH/KM FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 090144 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 944 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERNIGHT...HOLDING FAST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WILL GET TRANSPORTED EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS CHANGE WAS TO KEEP AT BATCH OF CLOUDINESS IN THE FAR SRN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS STILL LOCATED FROM FVX SOUTHWEST TO VJI. 00Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND THIS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S OVER THE SE WV MTNS INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING THE FINAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DEEPENING MOISTURE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING AND IN ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NCEP SREF SHOWED CHANCE OF RAIN NOT REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LOWER...STILL EXPECT CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THIS...A SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EVEN WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED TODAY...AM NOT FORECASTING ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS KLWB. HERE...MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND 10-12Z...800-1000 AM EDT. SOME IFR CIG/VIS MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AT KDAN...IF WINDS WEAKEN QUICK ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE. ALSO...IF DRY AIR IS DELAYED...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY BE SMALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME RESTRICTIONS. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN WEAKER ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN TODAY HAS INCREASED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ONLY TEMPORARILY IN PARTS OF THE REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/KM FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KLWX 090058 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 858 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE BRIEFLY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR DISCUSSION OF FIRE WX THREAT THRU THU. CDFNT CLEARING ST MARYS CNTY AND LWR PORTIONS OF MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 1Z. FOLLOWING FROPA...NW WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING SWD...THO WINDS LESS GTY WITH WANING DIURNAL MIXING. TEMPS DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVE AFTR UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. MAXIMA IN 90S...WITH 93 DEG HIGH AT KIAD TYING DAILY RECORD. HV BUMPED UP MINIMA JUST A BIT TNGT...AS DESPITE STRONG CAA...ATM WONT DECOUPLE AND WARMER THAN XPCD AFTN/EVE TEMPS MEANS FCST MINIMA WERE SOME 40-50 DEG COOLER THAN PREV MAXIMA OUT WEST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE WHILE HIPRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THU AS TDA...BUT NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTN. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN A UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY NWLY FLOW WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPR 70S /AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S INLAND...UPR 50S FOR URBAN AREAS. SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO CROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING EAST. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EAST WITH THE RIDGE...SO SHOULD NOT MANY OVERRUNNING CLOUDS BE PRESENT...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE /AND AROUND 80F ALONG WEST/. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO LOOKS TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ENABLE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT WOULD ENTER THE WRN ZONES EARLY SAT NIGHT...WHICH DEPENDING ON ORGANIZATION MAY REACH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAYBREAK. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OUT WEST...MID CHANCE /40 PERCENT/ EAST FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD FROPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE NERN CONUS...BRINGING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIND GTS HV DIMINISHED AFTR SUNSET...BUT WILL RETURN BY MID-MRNG WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT FROM NW FOR ALL XCPT KCHO. ASIDE FROM SOME CI...SKC AND P6SM VSBY XPCD INTO FRI. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... NWLY FLOW WITH VFR CONDS CONTINUES THUR NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... SCA CONDS HV ENDED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY FOR THE WATERS. ADZY RMNS IN PLACE FOR MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LWR TIDAL POTOMAC RVR TNGT...WHERE NLY SURGE WILL PSBLY CREATE 20 KT GTS. TMW...INCRD MIXING WILL SUPPORT 20-25KT GTS FROM THE NW FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS...AND SCA IN EFFECT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LEFT SCA OUT OF THURSDAY NIGHT ATTM...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE BAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES ON SATURDAY WITH RETURN SLY FLOW STARTING LATE SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE BAY LATE SUNDAY...THOUGH PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD START EARLY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW RFW CRITERIA THIS EVE...SO WRNG ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ***GOV OF W.V. HAS ISSUED A BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.*** EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THU AND FRI. WHILE NW WINDS /AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG WRNG CRITERIA ATTM...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE OFFICIALS...BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST AN SPS MENTIONING THE HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL BE NEEDED BOTH DAYS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...JRK/SBK SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...BAJ/JRK/SBK MARINE...BAJ/JRK/SBK FIRE WEATHER...JRK/SBK 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 090012 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 812 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... STILL A VERY STRONG GRADIENT OF LOW LVL MSTR IN PLACE ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION...DEW PTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S OVER THE DC AREA WITH A STRG NW FLOW...MEANWHILE ITS STILL IN THE 60S OVER CNTRL VA. EXPECT THE DEW PTS TO DROP FROM N TO S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...BUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEY`LL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR-MID 50S RATHER THAN THE 30S. ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT SOME WIND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE NRN PIEDMNT...UPR 50S TO LWR 60S OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF VA/MD...TO MID/UPR 60S NEAR THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES (WITH SOME AFTN CU PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN ZONES). AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH DAYS...YIELDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS KEEP PRECIP WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE NRN EDGE OF A CIRRUS BAND ACROSS SW VA AND NC DOWN TO ABOUT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AS OF 23Z. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WERE APPROACHING THE TAF SITES FROM THE NW AND THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING (WHILE INCREASING OVERNIGHT IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR THE BAY/COAST...SEE MARINE SECTION). NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTN ON THU BUT GENERALLY STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT SBY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THU NIGHT THROUGH MON EXCEPT FOR A CHC OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT AROUND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY DRY AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE IDEAL MIXING WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-26C IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND AROUND 24C IN THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AT 925MB IN THE NAM NEAR 30 KT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONES...SO A SMALL CRAFT FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THESE LOCATIONS BEGINNING AT 10 PM. THE FLAG FOR THE BAY EXTENDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BASED ON THE LOWER CRITERIA. THE MIXING PROFILE BECOMES MORE STABLE OVER THE WATER THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG...BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER ON THURSDAY... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THIS STATEMENT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN VA EXCEPT FAR SE VA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... WITH TODAY`S HIGH OF 90 F AT RICHMOND...THERE HAVE NOW BEEN 71 DAYS THIS YEAR WITH A HIGH OF 90 F OR HIGHER. THIS IS THE MOST ON RECORD AT RIC...SURPASSING THE 70 DAYS OF 90+ BACK IN 1977. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LSA MARINE...AJZ FIRE WEATHER...JDM CLIMATE...LKB 000 FXUS61 KRNK 082350 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 750 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL HOLD FAST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WILL GET TRANSPORTED EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 21Z...500 PM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE CWA...AND MODELS ARE STILL TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF DRYING. SFC FRONT IS LOCATED FROM BETWEEN LYH-CHO SOUTHWEST TO PSK AND TRI. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS DRYING RAPIDLY AND SHOULD SQUELCH ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT PER LATEST VIS/WV LOOPS. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS DECOUPLE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING THE FINAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DEEPENING MOISTURE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING AND IN ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NCEP SREF SHOWED CHANCE OF RAIN NOT REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LOWER...STILL EXPECT CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THIS...A SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EVEN WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED TODAY...AM NOT FORECASTING AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS KLWB. HERE...MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND 10-12Z...800-1000 AM EDT. SOME IFR CIG/VIS MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AT KDAN...IF WINDS WEAKEN QUICK ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE. ALSO...IF DRY AIR IS DELAYED...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY BE SMALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME RESTRICTIONS. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN WEAKER ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN TODAY HAS INCREASED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ONLY TEMPORARILY IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE WILL RETURN TO THEIR 7 PERCENT OR LOWER READINGS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/KM FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 082108 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 508 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL HOLD FAST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE FROM THE REMANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WILL GET TRANSPORTED EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 21Z...500 PM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE CWA...AND MODELS ARE STILL TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF DRYING. SFC FRONT IS LOCATED FROM BETWEEN LYH-CHO SOUTHWEST TO PSK AND TRI. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS DRYING RAPIDLY AND SHOULD SQUELCH ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT PER LATEST VIS/WV LOOPS. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS DECOUPLE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING THE FINAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DEEPENING MOISTURE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING AND IN ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NCEP SREF SHOWED CHANCE OF RAIN NOT REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LOWER...STILL EXPECT CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1730Z...130 PM EDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG A KBLF...KROA...KCHO LINE. NORTH OF THE FRONT SKIES ARE VFR WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT SKIES WERE LOW END VFR BKN-OVC WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA EITHER...BUT AS OF NOW NONE WERE NOTED. ALSO...LOCALIZE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONG SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING. WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SO THAT BY 22Z...600 PM...NEARLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THIS...A SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EVEN WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED TODAY...AM NOT FORECASTING AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS KLWB. HERE...MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND 10-12Z...800-1000 AM EDT. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN WEAKER ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN TODAY HAS INCREASED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ONLY TEMPORARILY IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE WILL RETURN TO THEIR 7 PERCENT OR LOWER READINGS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 082049 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 449 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT HAS TRIGGERED SOME ISOLATED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR SW ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THESE SHWRS SLOWLY DIE OUT AND DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD DECK NOTED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS. THE BACK EDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEW POINTS (MID-40S TO MID-50S) IS NOTED OVER THE MD/WV PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...EXPECTING PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND WITH MID/UPR 60S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH DAYS...YIELDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS KEEP PRECIP WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TDY INTO THU MORNG...AS A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA. JUST CI AND HIGH AC IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRNT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT FOG BEHIND IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY DRY AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE IDEAL MIXING WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-26C IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND AROUND 24C IN THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AT 925MB IN THE NAM NEAR 30 KT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONES...SO A SMALL CRAFT FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THESE LOCATIONS BEGINNING AT 10 PM. THE FLAG FOR THE BAY EXTENDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BASED ON THE LOWER CRITERIA. THE MIXING PROFILE BECOMES MORE STABLE OVER THE WATER THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG...BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN VA AND INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 7PM. RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IN THESE AREAS TIL 7PM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER ON THURSDAY... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THIS STATEMENT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN VA EXCEPT SE VA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JEF MARINE...AJZ/JEF FIRE WEATHER...JDM 000 FXUS61 KLWX 081928 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 328 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE BRIEFLY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR DISCUSSION OF FIRE WX THREAT FOR TDA AND AGAIN TOMORROW. COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT AND LOWER SRN MD. A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND INCREASE IN WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. USED 3KM HRRR WRF TO POPULATE DEWPOINT GRIDS THRU THIS EVE. HRRR WRF WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT WAS ABLE TO PICK UP ON THE LARGE DROP IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN...BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARD SUNSET. DESPITE A HOT DAY TDA...NW FLOW WILL BRING IN A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TNGT...CAUSING OVNGT MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/ MID AND UPPER 50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOPRES NEAR THE MAINE/CANADA BORDER AND HIPRES BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS. DESPITE LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR WEST...A BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MAINE WHILE HIPRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THU AS TDA...BUT NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTN. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN A UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY NWLY FLOW WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPR 70S /AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S INLAND...UPR 50S FOR URBAN AREAS. SATURDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO CROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING EAST. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EAST WITH THE RIDGE...SO SHOULD NOT MANY OVERRUNNING CLOUDS BE PRESENT...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE /AND AROUND 80F ALONG WEST/. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO LOOKS TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ENABLE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY THAT WOULD ENTER THE WRN ZONES EARLY SAT NIGHT...WHICH DEPENDING ON ORGANIZATION MAY REACH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAYBREAK. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OUT WEST...MID CHANCE /40 PERCENT/ EAST FOR SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD FROPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE NERN CONUS...BRINGING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND THU. SUSTAINED W-NW WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE AFTN BEFORE RELAXING AROUND SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE THU MRNG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW WITH VFR CONDS CONTINUES THUR NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WITH W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KT THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHSPK BAY INTO TNGT BEFORE NW WINDS REACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES DURING THE DAY THU. LEFT SCA OUT OF THURSDAY NIGHT ATTM...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE BAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES ON SATURDAY WITH RETURN SLY FLOW STARTING LATE SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE BAY LATE SUNDAY...THOUGH PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD START EARLY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ***GOV OF W.V. HAS ISSUED A BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.*** EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RED FLAG WRNG CONTINUES THRU 7 PM FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT AND LOWER SRN MD /WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS REMAIN WEAKER/. WINDS SHOULD RELAX AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THU AND FRI. WHILE NW WINDS /AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG WRNG CRITERIA ATTM...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE OFFICIALS...BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST AN SPS MENTIONING THE HEIGHTENED THREAT WILL BE NEEDED BOTH DAYS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001. MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007- 009>011-013-014-501-502. VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ021- 025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502. WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>055- 501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...JRK SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...BAJ/JRK MARINE...BAJ/JRK FIRE WEATHER...JRK 000 FXUS61 KRNK 081922 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 322 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL HOLD FAST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE FROM THE REMANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WILL GET TRANSPORTED EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 19Z...300 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S AT LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS. THIS IS COMPARED TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO BE USHERED SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND THE CLEARING SKIES WERE NEAR THE BLUEFIELD TO ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG LINE. OVERNIGHT...AM EXPECTING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER UNTIL ABOUT 600 TO 800 PM...WITH SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS DECOUPLE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BRING THE FINAL PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DEEPENING MOISTURE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK UP INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TRIMMING BACK PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING AND IN ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NCEP SREF SHOWED CHANCE OF RAIN NOT REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LOWER...STILL EXPECT CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. A MARITIME PACIFIC AIRMASS COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPED UP THE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE ECMWF HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1730Z...130 PM EDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG A KBLF...KROA...KCHO LINE. NORTH OF THE FRONT SKIES ARE VFR WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT SKIES WERE LOW END VFR BKN-OVC WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA EITHER...BUT AS OF NOW NONE WERE NOTED. ALSO...LOCALIZE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONG SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING. WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SO THAT BY 22Z...600 PM...NEARLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THIS...A SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EVEN WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED TODAY...AM NOT FORECASTING AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS KLWB. HERE...MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND 10-12Z...800-1000 AM EDT. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN WEAKER ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN TODAY HAS INCREASED 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ONLY TEMPORARILY IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE WILL RETURN TO THEIR 7 PERCENT OR LOWER READINGS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS FIRE WEATHER...DS 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081852 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 252 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT HAS TRIGGERED SOME ISOLATED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR SW ZONES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THESE SHWRS SLOWLY DIE OUT AND DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD DECK NOTED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS. THE BACK EDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEW POINTS (MID-40S TO MID-50S) IS NOTED OVER THE MD/WV PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...EXPECTING PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND WITH MID/UPR 60S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPR 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BOTH DAYS...YIELDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS KEEP PRECIP WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TDY INTO THU MORNG...AS A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA. JUST CI AND HIGH AC IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRNT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT FOG BEHIND IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... STILL GETTING 17-18 KT WAVES IN THE MIDDLE AND SRN BAY SO DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA UNTIL 2 PM. EXPECT WNDS TO DECREASE OVER THE WTRS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS HEAT UP. ANOTHER SCA MIGHT HAVE TO BE RAISED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AFTER FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES THRU THE WTRS. WNDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NW-N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING AND BRIEF SURGE BEHND TO FRONT MAY RAISE WNDS AND SEAS TO SCA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OTW HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU AND CONT DRY WX. ANOTHER COLD FRNT MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN VA AND INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 7PM. RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IN THESE AREAS TIL 7PM. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER ON THURSDAY... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THIS STATEMENT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN VA EXCEPT SE VA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631- 632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JEF MARINE...AJZ FIRE WEATHER...JDM 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081826 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 226 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATCHING A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. STILL HAVE ISOLATED SHWRS POSSIBLE OVER NE NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT TEMPS FORM REACHING THEIR FULLEST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE TRIMMED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AN INCREASED FIRE WX RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY. STLT WV/IR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) PROFILE...LARGELY DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC EFFECTS BTWN THE DEEP LOW N OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER TX. ZONAL FLOW BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS HAS EXTENDED THE OUTER CI/CS SHIELD OF HERMINE WELL E...NOW INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...WHILE MID LVL DEFORMATION IS FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WITH THE SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF FVRBL QG FORCING/DEEP MSTR BTWN THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS...COMPOSITE RADARS SHOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER THE MNTS ASSCD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS WHAT THE DOWNSLOPING W/WSW PRE FRONTAL LLVL FLOW WILL DO TO THESE POCKETS OF SHOWERS ONCE THEY PUSH E OF THE MNTNS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WRLY FLOW... BOTH THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY PER THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS (MORE RRQ OR RIGHT EXIT REGION UPR FORCING THAN OTHERWISE)...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST TODAY OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT IS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED HIGH-BASED CU FIELD AND ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN NC ZONES...IN AN AREA WHERE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES (MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AT MOST...LOOKING AT 15-20% PROBABILITY/COVERAGE. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES PEAKING AT 1420-1425M THIS AFTN...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTN...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL GUST FACTOR OVER LAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RADAR SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNL MOD RAINSHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION MOVG TO THE SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CENTRL VA AND COULD AFFECT RIC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE OTHER THAN VFR CONDS. FRONTL BNDRY WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WNDS WILL SHFT FROM W-NW-N INTO EARLY THU MRNG. HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THU AND TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. VFR CONDS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES ON SUN. && .MARINE... STILL GETTING 17-18 KT WAVES IN THE MIDDLE AND SRN BAY SO DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA UNTIL 2 PM. EXPECT WNDS TO DECREASE OVER THE WTRS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS HEAT UP. ANOTHER SCA MIGHT HAVE TO BE RAISED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AFTER FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES THRU THE WTRS. WNDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NW-N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING AND BRIEF SURGE BEHND TO FRONT MAY RAISE WNDS AND SEAS TO SCA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OTW HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU AND CONT DRY WX. ANOTHER COLD FRNT MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE AGENCIES IN BOTH VA AND MD...WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 30-40% RANGE BETWEEN 3PM-6PM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS ALSO ALSO BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH 10 HR FUELS AOB 10% WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IN THESE AREAS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER ON THURSDAY... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL PROBABLY NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN VA AND MD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JEF MARINE...AJZ/JEF FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 081743 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 143 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL HOLD FAST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE FROM THE REMANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WILL GET TRANSPORTED EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A GREATER PERIOD OF TIME THAN ORIGINALLY INDICATED. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL HAVE THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF A SLOWER PACE. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...HUMIDITY AND SKY COVER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPPER TROF PASSES THIS EVENING ALLOWING MORE OF A NW TRAJECTORY TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST RESIDUAL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND COOL ADVECTION SHOULD SPELL FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS SOUTH GIVEN THE LAGGING 85H BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MORNING AND SOME RESIDUAL MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST WIND PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED BUT A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP EASTERN LOCATIONS WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LESS WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE 3F OR SO FROM THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE COMING IN COOLER...PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT...FRIDAY DESPITE 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING. ONLY EVIDENCE OF COOLING IS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW...SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY GROUND/AIR MASS AND SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING IN THE EAST TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL. MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1730Z...130 PM EDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG A KBLF...KROA...KCHO LINE. NORTH OF THE FRONT SKIES ARE VFR WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT SKIES WERE LOW END VFR BKN-OVC WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA EITHER...BUT AS OF NOW NONE WERE NOTED. ALSO...LOCALIZE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONG SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING. WE ARE EXPECTING THE FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SO THAT BY 22Z...600 PM...NEARLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THIS...A SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EVEN WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED TODAY...AM NOT FORECASTING AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS KLWB. HERE...MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND 10-12Z...800-1000 AM EDT. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEAR SKIES...BUT WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINING...GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...1100 AM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...FIRST A WARM FRONT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS OFFICIALS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS THE CHANCE OF HAVING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED. WILL REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AND INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH AS PART OF THE AREA OF INTEREST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK BUT COULD FALL EVEN LOWER FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME AREA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...DS FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 081644 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1244 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A GREATER PERIOD OF TIME THAN ORIGINALLY INDICATED. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL HAVE THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF A SLOWER PACE. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...HUMIDITY AND SKY COVER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPPER TROF PASSES THIS EVENING ALLOWING MORE OF A NW TRAJECTORY TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST RESIDUAL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND COOL ADVECTION SHOULD SPELL FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS SOUTH GIVEN THE LAGGING 85H BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MORNING AND SOME RESIDUAL MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST WIND PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED BUT A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP EASTERN LOCATIONS WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LESS WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE 3F OR SO FROM THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE COMING IN COOLER...PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT...FRIDAY DESPITE 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING. ONLY EVIDENCE OF COOLING IS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW...SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY GROUND/AIR MASS AND SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING IN THE EAST TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL. MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WVA WILL CROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AXIS OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER MSAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCTD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED -TSRA THRU MID MORNING AS STILL SEEING A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST BUFKIT RAOBS ALSO ARE A BIT WETTER SO LOWERED CIGS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND KEPT/INCLUDED A VCSH/CB MENTION AT BOTH SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSW SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING UNDER A RATHER EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN OFF TO THE SE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHOWN A BIT MORE LIFT ACROSS THE SW THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIDE AN AXIS OF SHRA EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO AROUND KDAN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AXIS OF HIGH PWATS AND SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OUT EAST SO ADDING IN A VICINITY SHRA MENTION INCLUDING A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AT KDAN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-28 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS OFFICIALS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS THE CHANCE OF HAVING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED. WILL REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AND INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH AS PART OF THE AREA OF INTEREST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK BUT COULD FALL EVEN LOWER FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...DS/JH/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KLWX 081533 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1133 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA LATE THIS MORNING. IT WILL BRING DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS MORINING, AND THEY SHOULD CLEAR THE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CHO SHORTLY. THE ADVERTISED DROP IN DEW POINTS AND INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS WAS UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SEEMED TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA WERE NUDGED UP JUST A LITTLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVATION BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING ON THE COOL SIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... TNGT THINGS WL SETTLE DOWN AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE RGN. CLR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTR MDNGT AS LO LVL INVRSN FORMS. IN SPITE OF THE POST FRONTAL CAA ENVIRONMENT I HV LOW TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE 2ND WK OF SEP...RANGING FM MU40S IN THE HIGHLANDS...50S MUCH OF THE AREA...LM60S IN CITIES/ALONG THE BAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TROF-RIDGE-TROF FOR THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST TROF WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE CHANNEL THU/FRI. THE FURTHER EAST THIS FEATURE MOVES...THE WARMER AND LESS WINDY THE MID ATLC WILL BE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT WE/LL SEE TODAY POST-FRONTAL WILL BE SUBSIDING A BIT EACH AFTN...THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID MS VLY ON FRI...EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROF /THE SECOND TROF FEATURE/ THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS - MUCH LIKE THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DONE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG ZONAL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY /OR A WEAK BUT LARGE AND ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS/ WILL SETTLE IN BY SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SECOND TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC. THE OTHER FEATURE WOULD BE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME MORE STEADILY SEASONABLE DURING THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS TDA/TNGT. XPCT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE W ARND NOON AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN. CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS AFTR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS /AND A LOW CHANCE AT THAT/. WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN W/ 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI AFTN. && .MARINE... SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND WL RMN SO THRU THE DAY AND EVE HRS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. GIVEN CAA OVR XTRMLY WARM WATERS WINDS WL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVR THE BAY AND LOWER PTMC OVRNGT. INCREASING WINDS DURING EACH AFTN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY THU AND FRI FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID MORNING HRS EACH DAY AND PEAK LATE AFTN/EVE...FOR MORE LIKELY CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FOR WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES LATE FRI/SAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ***GOV OF W.V. HAS ISSUED A BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.*** EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE, GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON A SIGNIFICANT BREEZE. IT WAS BRINGING LOW RH VALUES WITH IT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING SEEMED TO HAVE PASSED, AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001. MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007- 009>011-013-014-501-502. VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ021- 025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502. WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>055- 501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535- 536-538-542. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS/MPD 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081515 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1115 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WATCHING A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. STILL HAVE ISOLATED SHWRS POSSIBLE OVER NE NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT TEMPS FORM REACHING THEIR FULLEST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE TRIMMED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS AN INCREASED FIRE WX RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY. STLT WV/IR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) PROFILE...LARGELY DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC EFFECTS BTWN THE DEEP LOW N OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER TX. ZONAL FLOW BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS HAS EXTENDED THE OUTER CI/CS SHIELD OF HERMINE WELL E...NOW INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...WHILE MID LVL DEFORMATION IS FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WITH THE SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF FVRBL QG FORCING/DEEP MSTR BTWN THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS...COMPOSITE RADARS SHOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER THE MNTS ASSCD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS WHAT THE DOWNSLOPING W/WSW PRE FRONTAL LLVL FLOW WILL DO TO THESE POCKETS OF SHOWERS ONCE THEY PUSH E OF THE MNTNS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WRLY FLOW... BOTH THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY PER THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS (MORE RRQ OR RIGHT EXIT REGION UPR FORCING THAN OTHERWISE)...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST TODAY OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT IS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED HIGH-BASED CU FIELD AND ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN NC ZONES...IN AN AREA WHERE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES (MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AT MOST...LOOKING AT 15-20% PROBABILITY/COVERAGE. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES PEAKING AT 1420-1425M THIS AFTN...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTN...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL GUST FACTOR OVER LAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TDY INTO THU MORNG...AS A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA. JUST CI AND HIGH AC IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRNT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT FOG BEHIND IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... STILL GETTING 17-18 KT WAVES IN THE MIDDLE AND SRN BAY SO DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA UNTIL 2 PM. EXPECT WNDS TO DECREASE OVER THE WTRS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS HEAT UP. ANOTHER SCA MIGHT HAVE TO BE RAISED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AFTER FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES THRU THE WTRS. WNDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NW-N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING AND BRIEF SURGE BEHND TO FRONT MAY RAISE WNDS AND SEAS TO SCA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OTW HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU AND CONT DRY WX. ANOTHER COLD FRNT MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE AGENCIES IN BOTH VA AND MD...WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 30-40% RANGE BETWEEN 3PM-6PM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS ALSO ALSO BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH 10 HR FUELS AOB 10% WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IN THESE AREAS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER FURTHER ON THURSDAY... REACHING THE 20-25% RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH FUEL MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH THESE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL PROBABLY NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN VA AND MD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631- 632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH NEAR TERM...BKH/JDM SHORT TERM...BKH LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JEF FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081452 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1052 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WATCHING A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. STILL HAVE ISOLATED SHWRS POSSIBLE OVER NE NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT TEMPS FORM REACHING THEIR FULLEST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE TRIMMED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY. STLT WV/IR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) PROFILE...LARGELY DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC EFFECTS BTWN THE DEEP LOW N OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER TX. ZONAL FLOW BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS HAS EXTENDED THE OUTER CI/CS SHIELD OF HERMINE WELL E...NOW INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...WHILE MID LVL DEFORMATION IS FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WITH THE SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF FVRBL QG FORCING/DEEP MSTR BTWN THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS...COMPOSITE RADARS SHOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER THE MNTS ASSCD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS WHAT THE DOWNSLOPING W/WSW PRE FRONTAL LLVL FLOW WILL DO TO THESE POCKETS OF SHOWERS ONCE THEY PUSH E OF THE MNTNS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WRLY FLOW... BOTH THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY PER THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS (MORE RRQ OR RIGHT EXIT REGION UPR FORCING THAN OTHERWISE)...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST TODAY OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT IS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED HIGH-BASED CU FIELD AND ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN NC ZONES...IN AN AREA WHERE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES (MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AT MOST...LOOKING AT 15-20% PROBABILITY/COVERAGE. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES PEAKING AT 1420-1425M THIS AFTN...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTN...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL GUST FACTOR OVER LAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TDY INTO THU MORNG...AS A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA. JUST CI AND HIGH AC IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRNT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT FOG BEHIND IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... STILL GETTING 17-18 KT WAVES IN THE MIDDLE AND SRN BAY SO DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA UNTIL 2 PM. EXPECT WNDS TO DECREASE OVER THE WTRS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS LAND AREAS HEAT UP. ANOTHER SCA MIGHT HAVE TO BE RAISED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AFTER FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES THRU THE WTRS. WNDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NW-N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING AND BRIEF SURGE BEHND TO FRONT MAY RAISE WNDS AND SEAS TO SCA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OTW HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU AND CONT DRY WX. ANOTHER COLD FRNT MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ631- 632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH NEAR TERM...BKH/JDM SHORT TERM...BKH LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...JEF 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081420 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1020 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WATCHING A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. STILL HAVE ISOLATED SHWRS POSSIBLE OVER NE NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT TEMPS FORM REACHING THEIR FULLEST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE TRIMMED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY. STLT WV/IR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) PROFILE...LARGELY DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC EFFECTS BTWN THE DEEP LOW N OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER TX. ZONAL FLOW BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS HAS EXTENDED THE OUTER CI/CS SHIELD OF HERMINE WELL E...NOW INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...WHILE MID LVL DEFORMATION IS FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WITH THE SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF FVRBL QG FORCING/DEEP MSTR BTWN THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS...COMPOSITE RADARS SHOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER THE MNTS ASSCD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS WHAT THE DOWNSLOPING W/WSW PRE FRONTAL LLVL FLOW WILL DO TO THESE POCKETS OF SHOWERS ONCE THEY PUSH E OF THE MNTNS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WRLY FLOW... BOTH THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY PER THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS (MORE RRQ OR RIGHT EXIT REGION UPR FORCING THAN OTHERWISE)...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST TODAY OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT IS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED HIGH-BASED CU FIELD AND ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN NC ZONES...IN AN AREA WHERE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES (MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AT MOST...LOOKING AT 15-20% PROBABILITY/COVERAGE. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES PEAKING AT 1420-1425M THIS AFTN...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTN...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL GUST FACTOR OVER LAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TDY INTO THU MORNG...AS A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA. JUST CI AND HIGH AC IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRNT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT FOG BEHIND IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... SCA IN EFFECT FOR CHES BAY AND NRN TWO CSTL ZNS THRU 7 AM THIS MORNG DUE TO GUSTY SW WNDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. FRNT THEN PUSHES ACRS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENG...WITH WNDS SHIFTING TO THE NW OR N OVRNGT INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE BNDRY. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT...WITH NW OR N WNDS...WAVES AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRNT MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH NEAR TERM...BKH/JDM SHORT TERM...BKH LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG 000 FXUS61 KRNK 081407 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1007 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL RELECT LIMITED CHANGES AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOCUS FOR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THIS AREA MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT SO WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOW SIDE OF POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO WVA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING SE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF DEEPER RH/THETA-E JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE ENCOUNTERING DEEP WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKENING. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER GOING INTO SE WVA/FAR WESTERN VA EARLY ON BEFORE MOST OF THE FOCUS SHIFTS DOWN THE RIDGES INTO SW VA/NW NC LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT PASSES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NW NC PROVIDED SOME HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR NOT RENEWED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS MORE ROBUST WHILE LOCAL GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE. NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE OVERDONE WITH QPF BUT GIVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL BACKING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTH...WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP ESPCLY SINCE BOTH THE ENSEMBLES AND EURO HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTRW EXPECT QUICK POST FRONTAL AFTERNOON DRYING WITH DECENT SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZES AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS FROM NW TO SE. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA SOUTH LATER ON. HOWEVER IF MORE SUN TAKES SHAPE EARLIER THEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR COULD BOOST READINGS FROM ROANOKE EAST INTO THE LOW 90S. UPPER TROF PASSES THIS EVENING ALLOWING MORE OF A NW TRAJECTORY TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST RESIDUAL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND COOL ADVECTION SHOULD SPELL FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS SOUTH GIVEN THE LAGGING 85H BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MORNING AND SOME RESIDUAL MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST WIND PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED BUT A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP EASTERN LOCATIONS WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LESS WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE 3F OR SO FROM THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE COMING IN COOLER...PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT...FRIDAY DESPITE 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING. ONLY EVIDENCE OF COOLING IS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW...SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY GROUND/AIR MASS AND SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING IN THE EAST TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL. MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WVA WILL CROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AXIS OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER MSAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCTD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED -TSRA THRU MID MORNING AS STILL SEEING A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST BUFKIT RAOBS ALSO ARE A BIT WETTER SO LOWERED CIGS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND KEPT/INCLUDED A VCSH/CB MENTION AT BOTH SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSW SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING UNDER A RATHER EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN OFF TO THE SE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHOWN A BIT MORE LIFT ACROSS THE SW THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIDE AN AXIS OF SHRA EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO AROUND KDAN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AXIS OF HIGH PWATS AND SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OUT EAST SO ADDING IN A VICINITY SHRA MENTION INCLUDING A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AT KDAN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-28 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS OFFICIALS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS THE CHANCE OF HAVING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED. WILL REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AND INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH AS PART OF THE AREA OF INTEREST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK BUT COULD FALL EVEN LOWER FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...DS/JH/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 081046 AAA AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 646 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS OVER PARTS OF THE SW AND EXTEND CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING GIVEN INCREASING SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH ATTM. REMAINDER UNCHANGED FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO WVA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING SE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF DEEPER RH/THETA-E JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE ENCOUNTERING DEEP WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKENING. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER GOING INTO SE WVA/FAR WESTERN VA EARLY ON BEFORE MOST OF THE FOCUS SHIFTS DOWN THE RIDGES INTO SW VA/NW NC LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT PASSES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NW NC PROVIDED SOME HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR NOT RENEWED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS MORE ROBUST WHILE LOCAL GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE. NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE OVERDONE WITH QPF BUT GIVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL BACKING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTH...WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP ESPCLY SINCE BOTH THE ENSEMBLES AND EURO HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTRW EXPECT QUICK POST FRONTAL AFTERNOON DRYING WITH DECENT SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZES AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS FROM NW TO SE. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA SOUTH LATER ON. HOWEVER IF MORE SUN TAKES SHAPE EARLIER THEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR COULD BOOST READINGS FROM ROANOKE EAST INTO THE LOW 90S. UPPER TROF PASSES THIS EVENING ALLOWING MORE OF A NW TRAJECTORY TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST RESIDUAL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND COOL ADVECTION SHOULD SPELL FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS SOUTH GIVEN THE LAGGING 85H BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MORNING AND SOME RESIDUAL MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST WIND PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED BUT A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP EASTERN LOCATIONS WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LESS WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE 3F OR SO FROM THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE COMING IN COOLER...PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT...FRIDAY DESPITE 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING. ONLY EVIDENCE OF COOLING IS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW...SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY GROUND/AIR MASS AND SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING IN THE EAST TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL. MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WVA WILL CROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AXIS OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER MSAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCTD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED -TSRA THRU MID MORNING AS STILL SEEING A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST BUFKIT RAOBS ALSO ARE A BIT WETTER SO LOWERED CIGS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND KEPT/INCLUDED A VCSH/CB MENTION AT BOTH SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSW SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING UNDER A RATHER EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN OFF TO THE SE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHOWN A BIT MORE LIFT ACROSS THE SW THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIDE AN AXIS OF SHRA EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO AROUND KDAN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AXIS OF HIGH PWATS AND SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OUT EAST SO ADDING IN A VICINITY SHRA MENTION INCLUDING A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AT KDAN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB THIS MORNING...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-28 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN APPROACHING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW ATTM WILL DELAY UPDATING THE GOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING TO SEE THE DEGREE OF WETTING THAT TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTRW IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK BUT COULD FALL EVEN LOWER FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ019-020-022>024. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS/RCS AVIATION...DS/JH/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080840 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 440 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY. STLT WV/IR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) PROFILE...LARGELY DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC EFFECTS BTWN THE DEEP LOW N OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER TX. ZONAL FLOW BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS HAS EXTENDED THE OUTER CI/CS SHIELD OF HERMINE WELL E...NOW INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...WHILE MID LVL DEFORMATION IS FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WITH THE SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF FVRBL QG FORCING/DEEP MSTR BTWN THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS...COMPOSITE RADARS SHOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER THE MNTS ASSCD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS WHAT THE DOWNSLOPING W/WSW PRE FRONTAL LLVL FLOW WILL DO TO THESE POCKETS OF SHOWERS ONCE THEY PUSH E OF THE MNTNS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WRLY FLOW... BOTH THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY PER THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS (MORE RRQ OR RIGHT EXIT REGION UPR FORCING THAN OTHERWISE)...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST TODAY OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT IS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED HIGH-BASED CU FIELD AND ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN NC ZONES...IN AN AREA WHERE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES (MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AT MOST...LOOKING AT 15-20% PROBABILITY/COVERAGE. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES PEAKING AT 1420-1425M THIS AFTN...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTN...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL GUST FACTOR OVER LAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TDY INTO THU MORNG...AS A DRY COLD FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA. JUST CI AND HIGH AC IN ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRNT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LGT FOG BEHIND IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRNT APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU. && .MARINE... SCA IN EFFECT FOR CHES BAY AND NRN TWO CSTL ZNS THRU 7 AM THIS MORNG DUE TO GUSTY SW WNDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT. FRNT THEN PUSHES ACRS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENG...WITH WNDS SHIFTING TO THE NW OR N OVRNGT INTO ERLY THU MORNG BEHIND THE BNDRY. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION FOR THU INTO SAT...WITH NW OR N WNDS...WAVES AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER COLD FRNT MOVES THRU THE AREA SUN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH NEAR TERM...BKH SHORT TERM...BKH LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080806 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 406 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY. STLT WV/IR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER DISJOINTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) PROFILE...LARGELY DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC EFFECTS BTWN THE DEEP LOW N OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE OVER TX. ZONAL FLOW BTWN THESE 2 SYSTEMS HAS EXTENDED THE OUTER CI/CS SHIELD OF HERMINE WELL E...NOW INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...WHILE MID LVL DEFORMATION IS FAIRLY NOTICEABLE WITH THE SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF FVRBL QG FORCING/DEEP MSTR BTWN THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS...COMPOSITE RADARS SHOW NOT MUCH MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS OVER THE MNTS ASSCD WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR OUR REGION IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES IS WHAT THE DOWNSLOPING W/WSW PRE FRONTAL LLVL FLOW WILL DO TO THESE POCKETS OF SHOWERS ONCE THEY PUSH E OF THE MNTNS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WRLY FLOW... BOTH THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY PER THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...AND GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS (MORE RRQ OR RIGHT EXIT REGION UPR FORCING THAN OTHERWISE)...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST TODAY OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT IS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED HIGH-BASED CU FIELD AND ISOLD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NERN NC ZONES...IN AN AREA WHERE LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES (MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AT MOST...LOOKING AT 15-20% PROBABILITY/COVERAGE. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES PEAKING AT 1420-1425M THIS AFTN...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTN...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL GUST FACTOR OVER LAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT AND WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO COME IN WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALL DAY WED. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AND SHIFT TO THE W DURING THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH SAT. && .MARINE... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WIND IS INCREASING OVER THE LOWER BAY AND NEARING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT FLAG WAS RAISED FOR THE LOWER BAY COINCIDENT WITH THE INHERITED FLAG TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA INTO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND OVERNIGHT WED. SFC GRADIENT IS MODEST BUT STRENGTHENING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY DELTA TEMPS AROUND 12C WOULD SUPPORT A WINDOW OF 18-25 KT WINDS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THU OVER CHES BAY AND THE CSTL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. -BLAES && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH NEAR TERM...BKH SHORT TERM...BKH LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG 000 FXUS61 KLWX 080743 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 343 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BRKG HEAT YDA...W/ BWI HITTING ITS 55TH DAY OF 90 DEG OR BETTER TEMPS. ATMOSPHERE IS CERTAINLY BACK IN MOTION THO...W/ CD FNT PRSNTLY ENTERING WRN W.V. IS XPCTD TO MOVE OUT OF THE APLCHNS ARND 15Z. ANY RW ASSO W/ THIS FNT WL BE ISOLD AT BEST IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ENDING BY MID MRNG. UNFORTUNATELY WE NEED THE RAIN AND THERE IS NONE ON THE HORIZON - SEE FIRE WX SXN BLO. WINDS WL TURN TO THE W BEHIND THE FNT AND INCRS THIS AFTN PRODUCING GUSTY 25 KT GUSTS. A DAY TO FLY A KITE? AFTR SCT-BKN MRNG CLDS SKIES SHOULD CLR PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTN. W/ XCPTN OF ONE DAY IN MY STRING OF SIX MIDS MDLS HV UNDERDONE HIGH TEMPS EVERY DAY. GIVEN THE HIGH STARTING PT (IT`S 81 AT DMH AT 2 AM...M70S OVR MUCH OF THE RMNDR OF THE AREA)...WARMTH THE GRND AND CHES BAY CURRENTLY POSSESS...AND AFTN SUN I`LL CONT THE TREND OF KEEPING IT VERY WARM...ANOTHER PSBLTY OF HITTING 90 IN BALT CITY/DC/ALONG THE BAY. MUCH OF E OF THE MTNS WL TOP OUT IN THE U80S...HIGHLANDS WL BE COOLEST IN THE MU70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... TNGT THINGS WL SETTLE DOWN AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE RGN. CLR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTR MDNGT AS LO LVL INVRSN FORMS. IN SPITE OF THE POST FRONTAL CAA ENVIRONMENT I HV LOW TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE 2ND WK OF SEP...RANGING FM MU40S IN THE HIGHLANDS...50S MUCH OF THE AREA...LM60S IN CITIES/ALONG THE BAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TROF-RIDGE-TROF FOR THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST TROF WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE CHANNEL THU/FRI. THE FURTHER EAST THIS FEATURE MOVES...THE WARMER AND LESS WINDY THE MID ATLC WILL BE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT WE/LL SEE TODAY POST-FRONTAL WILL BE SUBSIDING A BIT EACH AFTN...THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID MS VLY ON FRI...EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROF /THE SECOND TROF FEATURE/ THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS - MUCH LIKE THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DONE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG ZONAL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY /OR A WEAK BUT LARGE AND ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS/ WILL SETTLE IN BY SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SECOND TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC. THE OTHER FEATURE WOULD BE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE SWINGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME MORE STEADILY SEASONABLE DURING THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDS TDA/TNGT. XPCT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE W ARND NOON AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN. CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS AFTR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS /AND A LOW CHANCE AT THAT/. WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN W/ 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI AFTN. && .MARINE... SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND WL RMN SO THRU THE DAY AND EVE HRS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. GIVEN CAA OVR XTRMLY WARM WATERS WINDS WL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVR THE BAY AND LOWER PTMC OVRNGT. INCREASING WINDS DURING EACH AFTN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY THU AND FRI FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID MORNING HRS EACH DAY AND PEAK LATE AFTN/EVE...FOR MORE LIKELY CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FOR WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES LATE FRI/SAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ***GOV OF W.V. HAS ISSUED A BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.*** EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE... GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND MIN AFTN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY LOW FUEL MOISTURE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCLUSION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS IN VA. DAYSHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS MRNG WHEN WRNG HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE MADE. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MRGNL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG OUR TIDAL SHORELINE THRU THE MRNG TIDAL CYCLE. S WINDS HV BEEN PUSHING WATER UP THE BAY. WED MORNINGS HIGH TIDE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY ASTRONOMICAL TIDES..HENCE THE TIDES THIS MORN SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT THEY WERE IN THE EVENING...ALTHO ATTM DC TIDE LVL IS NEARLY AT NRML...AND CALLED THE ALEXANDRIA EM OFFICE WHICH REPORTED NO PROBS W/ THE PRVS CYCLE. WINDS WL TURN TO THE W/NW THIS AFTN...ENDING THIS CSTL FLD THREAT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001. MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ007- 011-013-014-016>018. VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021-025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ052>055-057. WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ531>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS 000 FXUS61 KRNK 080739 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 339 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO WVA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING SE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF DEEPER RH/THETA-E JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE ENCOUNTERING DEEP WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKENING. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER GOING INTO SE WVA/FAR WESTERN VA EARLY ON BEFORE MOST OF THE FOCUS SHIFTS DOWN THE RIDGES INTO SW VA/NW NC LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT PASSES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NW NC PROVIDED SOME HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR NOT RENEWED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS MORE ROBUST WHILE LOCAL GUIDANCE BASICALLY DRY WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE. NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE OVERDONE WITH QPF BUT GIVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL BACKING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTH...WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP ESPCLY SINCE BOTH THE ENSEMBLES AND EURO HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTRW EXPECT QUICK POST FRONTAL AFTERNOON DRYING WITH DECENT SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZES AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS FROM NW TO SE. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA SOUTH LATER ON. HOWEVER IF MORE SUN TAKES SHAPE EARLIER THEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR COULD BOOST READINGS FROM ROANOKE EAST INTO THE LOW 90S. UPPER TROF PASSES THIS EVENING ALLOWING MORE OF A NW TRAJECTORY TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST RESIDUAL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBO WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND COOL ADVECTION SHOULD SPELL FOR A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS SOUTH GIVEN THE LAGGING 85H BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH THRU MORNING AND SOME RESIDUAL MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DRY NORTHWEST WIND PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED BUT A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP EASTERN LOCATIONS WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LESS WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE 3F OR SO FROM THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE COMING IN COOLER...PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT...FRIDAY DESPITE 85H TEMPERATURES WARMING. ONLY EVIDENCE OF COOLING IS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW...SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY GROUND/AIR MASS AND SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING IN THE EAST TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS TO DROP AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL. MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER WILL PUSH TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. AXIS OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER MSAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCTD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED -TSRA THRU EARLY MORNING AS STILL SEEING A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST BUFKIT RAOBS ALSO ARE A BIT WETTER SO LOWERED CIGS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND KEPT/INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT BOTH SPOTS THRU ABOUT MID MORNING. ALSO GIVEN WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD CANOPY NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG AT KLWB UNLESS A SHRA CROSSES NEAR THE AIRPORT AND BREAKS DEVELOP. ELSW SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN OFF TO THE SE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHOWN A BIT MORE LIFT ACROSS THE SW THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIDE AN AXIS OF SHRA EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO AROUND KDAN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY GIVEN SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OUT EAST SO MAY ADD A VICINITY SHRA MENTION INCLUDING A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AT KDAN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-28 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN APPROACHING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW ATTM WILL DELAY UPDATING THE GOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING TO SEE THE DEGREE OF WETTING THAT TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTRW IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK BUT COULD FALL EVEN LOWER FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ019-020-022>024. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS/AMS AVIATION...DS/JH/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KRNK 080506 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 106 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS TO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAKENING TO THE SHOWERS OVER ECENTRAL KY WITH BETTER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH INTO ERN OHIO CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A CASE WHERE SHOWERS ARRIVE INTO THE MTNS OF WV THEN FALL APART AS THEY SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON TIMING. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TEMPS SHOULD START TO SLOW THERE DECLINE OVER THE FAR WEST...WITH THE EAST COOLING OFF A LITTLE FASTER. ATTM...FORECAST LOWS ON TRACK OF 60S MOST LOCATIONS MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SW CWA....AS DEWPOINTS ABOVE THE RIDGES PER 00Z RNK SOUNDING ARE STILL IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NC AND ERN VA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS MAY APPROACH 25 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF ROANOKE. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 90S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL BE MORE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS EVEN HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 850 MB DRY SO NO UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROF IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 00Z THURSDAY(8PM WEDNESDAY) WITH 5H MB HEIGHTS ONLY SLIGHTLY RISING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. NO REASON TO DEPART MUCH FROM BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER WILL PUSH TO ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. AXIS OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER MSAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCTD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED -TSRA THRU EARLY MORNING AS STILL SEEING A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST BUFKIT RAOBS ALSO ARE A BIT WETTER SO LOWERED CIGS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND KEPT/INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT BOTH SPOTS THRU ABOUT MID MORNING. ALSO GIVEN WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD CANOPY NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG AT KLWB UNLESS A SHRA CROSSES NEAR THE AIRPORT AND BREAKS DEVELOP. ELSW SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN OFF TO THE SE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHOWN A BIT MORE LIFT ACROSS THE SW THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIDE AN AXIS OF SHRA EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO AROUND KDAN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY GIVEN SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OUT EAST SO MAY ADD A VICINITY SHRA MENTION INCLUDING A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AT KDAN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-28 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS IN ROANOKE...HAVE POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE AND NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ019-020-022>024. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/JH/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KLWX 080151 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 951 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG OUR TIDAL SHORELINE. NEW MOON IS SEEING TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THAT COMBINED WITH S WINDS CONTINUING TO PUSH WATER UP THE BAY AND POTOMAC... AND THE FACT THAT WED MORNINGS HIGH TIDE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SHOULD SEE TO HIGH TIDES WED MORN THAT ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT THEY WERE THIS EVENING. AM EXPECTING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITERIA FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT ALL OF OUR TIDAL GAGES ON THE POTOMAC AND BAY....INCLUDING DC ALEXANDRIA ANNAPOLIS AND BALTIMORE. HIPRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TNGT AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST PUSHES THRU THE OH VLY THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK WED MRNG. THE RECENT LOCAL MODELS AND 18Z NAM AND GFS PAINT AN INCONSISTENT PICTURE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE HRRR/WRF GFS NAM AND RUC SAY NO...WHILE A FEW OF THE LATEST LOCAL WRFS SAY THEY MAY. DOWNSLOPING IN THE MIDLEVELS AND DECREASING INSTAB AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE DIURNAL MIN SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THEM FROM MOVING THRU. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES IN OUR MOUNTAIN WEST AND WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT FEW HOURS GO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE MRNG...AND PUSH THRU LOWER SRN MD BY THE ERY AFTN. AFTER AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA IN THE MRNG...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN QUICKLY DRIES OUT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. SEE FIRE SECTION FOR DISCUSSION OF FIRE THREAT ON WED. DAYTIME HIGHS WED WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS TO MU80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DAYTIME FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW ENSURING DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS /ANY SKY COVER WOULD BE HIGH CLOUDS/. COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PREVENT DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS AROUND 60F EAST OF I-95...LOW TO MID 50S INLAND...LOW 40S FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS IT BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY NWLY FLOW WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO UPPER 70S /JUST BELOW NORMAL/. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE QUICKER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF FOR A SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROPA ATTM. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HERMINE SHOULD BE PICKED UP FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...THOUGH A WEST TO EAST FROPA WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERING PRECIP AS IT PASSES THE APPALACHIANS. MORE HIGH PRESSURE POST FROPA. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND WED. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MTN AND DCA WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE LONGEST BEING CLOSE TO THE WATER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE TERMINALS WED MRNG. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WINDSHIFT FROM THE WEST. DURING THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. POST FROPA WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH VFR CONDS WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT COLD FRONT IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE... WINDS ARE SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY S OF POOLES AND THE LOWERMOST PART OF THE POTOMAC. WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 02Z FOR THE SLACKENING AREAS WHILE CONTINUING WITH THE EXISTING SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWR POTOMAC THRU TNT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS LATE WED MRNG INTO THE ERY AFTN. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MD BAY/SRN TIDAL POTOMAC AND EASTERN TRIBUTARIES /NOT PATAPSCO OR PAX RIVER/ WITH POST FROPA WLY/NWLY COOL FLOW MIXING DOWN OVER THE WARM WATER. NEAR SCA NWLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AND UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...SCA/S MORE LIKELY IF WIND IS ABLE TO VEER TO NLY AND CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PLEASE NOTE- BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WENT INTO EFFECT THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE TNGT INTO WED. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND MIN AFTN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY LOW FUEL MOISTURE. AFTER TALKING TO STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...A A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCLUSION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS IN VA /WHERE WINDS WILL LIGHTER/. WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS IN THE MRNG WHEN WRNG HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE MADE. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ007-011-013-014-016>018. VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021-025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ052>055-057. WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ531>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...JRK SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...BAJ/JRK MARINE...BAJ/JRK FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080150 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 950 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED WELL OFF THE NC COAST...WITH A DEEP S TO SSW FLOW OVER THE CWA. WHILE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GNLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 MPH...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. HAVE RAISED HRLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES...MOST AREAS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. INCREASING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WRN VA AND NC...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AND SLOWLY THICKEN UP A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT CLR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO PTLY CLDY SKIES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER.. LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FRONT DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT... BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE SETUP AND ONLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT (PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES). LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1420S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLE WITH THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S... WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION... IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD... WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMIT POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT AND WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO COME IN WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALL DAY WED. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AND SHIFT TO THE W DURING THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH SAT. && .MARINE... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WIND IS INCREASING OVER THE LOWER BAY AND NEARING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT FLAG WAS RAISED FOR THE LOWER BAY COINCIDENT WITH THE INHERITED FLAG TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA INTO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND OVERNIGHT WED. SFC GRADIENT IS MODEST BUT STRENGTHENING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY DELTA TEMPS AROUND 12C WOULD SUPPORT A WINDOW OF 18-25 KT WINDS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THU OVER CHES BAY AND THE CSTL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. -BLAES && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...DAP MARINE...AJZ/BLAES 000 FXUS61 KRNK 080146 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 946 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS TO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAKENING TO THE SHOWERS OVER ECENTRAL KY WITH BETTER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH INTO ERN OHIO CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A CASE WHERE SHOWERS ARRIVE INTO THE MTNS OF WV THEN FALL APART AS THEY SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON TIMING. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TEMPS SHOULD START TO SLOW THERE DECLINE OVER THE FAR WEST...WITH THE EAST COOLING OFF A LITTLE FASTER. ATTM...FORECAST LOWS ON TRACK OF 60S MOST LOCATIONS MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SW CWA....AS DEWPOINTS ABOVE THE RIDGES PER 00Z RNK SOUNDING ARE STILL IN THE 40S. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NC AND ERN VA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS MAY APPROACH 25 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF ROANOKE. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 90S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL BE MORE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS EVEN HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 850 MB DRY SO NO UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROF IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 00Z THURSDAY(8PM WEDNESDAY) WITH 5H MB HEIGHTS ONLY SLIGHTLY RISING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. NO REASON TO DEPART MUCH FROM BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS COMPARED WITH MODEL DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALL BUT BLF WILL REMAIN VFR THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WRN SLOPES NEAR BLF/LWB AROUND 09-11Z/05-07AM. KEPT VCSH IN AT BLF. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MVFR CIGS AT BLF FOR A SMALL PERIOD OF TIME. AIRMASS IS STILL DRY...AND THE MOS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENSE FOG AT LWB LATE TONIGHT. WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING...DO NOT FORESEE THIS HAPPENING. AT WORST...LWB COULD DROP TO 3 OR 4SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB AROUND 10-13Z...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS IN ROANOKE...HAVE POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE AND NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ019-020-022>024. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KLWX 080126 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 926 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIPRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TNGT AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST PUSHES THRU THE OH VLY THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK WED MRNG. THE RECENT LOCAL MODELS AND 18Z NAM AND GFS PAINT AN INCONSISTENT PICTURE WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE HRRR/WRF GFS NAM AND RUC SAY NO...WHILE A FEW OF THE LATEST LOCAL WRFS SAY THEY MAY. DOWNSLOPING IN THE MIDLEVELS AND DECREASING INSTAB AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE DIURNAL MIN SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THEM FROM MOVING THRU. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES IN OUR MOUNTAIN WEST AND WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT FEW HOURS GO. OTHER THREAT WED MORNING WILL BE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST AN EQUAL TIDAL LEVEL FOR HIGH TIDE WED MORNING IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH A CONTINUED S PUSH OF WATER UP THE BAY WITH NEW MOON. WILL CONSIDER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WED MORNING FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIDAL AREA IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE MRNG...AND PUSH THRU LOWER SRN MD BY THE ERY AFTN. AFTER AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA IN THE MRNG...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN QUICKLY DRIES OUT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. SEE FIRE SECTION FOR DISCUSSION OF FIRE THREAT ON WED. DAYTIME HIGHS WED WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS TO MU80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DAYTIME FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW ENSURING DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS /ANY SKY COVER WOULD BE HIGH CLOUDS/. COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PREVENT DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS AROUND 60F EAST OF I-95...LOW TO MID 50S INLAND...LOW 40S FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS IT BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY NWLY FLOW WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO UPPER 70S /JUST BELOW NORMAL/. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE QUICKER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF FOR A SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROPA ATTM. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HERMINE SHOULD BE PICKED UP FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...THOUGH A WEST TO EAST FROPA WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERING PRECIP AS IT PASSES THE APPALACHIANS. MORE HIGH PRESSURE POST FROPA. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND WED. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. MTN AND DCA WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE LONGEST BEING CLOSE TO THE WATER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE TERMINALS WED MRNG. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WINDSHIFT FROM THE WEST. DURING THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. POST FROPA WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH VFR CONDS WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT COLD FRONT IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE... WINDS ARE SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY S OF POOLES AND THE LOWERMOST PART OF THE POTOMAC. WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 02Z FOR THE SLACKENING AREAS WHILE CONTINUING WITH THE EXISTING SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWR POTOMAC THRU TNT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS LATE WED MRNG INTO THE ERY AFTN. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MD BAY/SRN TIDAL POTOMAC AND EASTERN TRIBUTARIES /NOT PATAPSCO OR PAX RIVER/ WITH POST FROPA WLY/NWLY COOL FLOW MIXING DOWN OVER THE WARM WATER. NEAR SCA NWLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AND UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...SCA/S MORE LIKELY IF WIND IS ABLE TO VEER TO NLY AND CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PLEASE NOTE- BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WENT INTO EFFECT THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE TNGT INTO WED. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND MIN AFTN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY LOW FUEL MOISTURE. AFTER TALKING TO STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...A A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCLUSION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS IN VA /WHERE WINDS WILL LIGHTER/. WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS IN THE MRNG WHEN WRNG HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE MADE. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021-025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502. WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ531>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...CS/JRK SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...CS/BAJ/JRK MARINE...CS/BAJ/JRK FIRE WEATHER...JRK/BAJ 000 FXUS61 KRNK 072344 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 744 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS TO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CU HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO MID TN EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING INTO AREA THIS EVENING WITH A MORE SOLID MID DECK ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FASTER THIS EVENING...THEN SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS BLOW IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...DROPPING INTO NC AND ERN VA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ENTER PARTS OF SE WV...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN THIS TIME AND 800 AM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ALL THE THE REGION BY 1000 AM...BUT EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS MAY APPROACH 25 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF ROANOKE. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 90S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL BE MORE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS EVEN HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 850 MB DRY SO NO UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROF IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 00Z THURSDAY(8PM WEDNESDAY) WITH 5H MB HEIGHTS ONLY SLIGHTLY RISING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. NO REASON TO DEPART MUCH FROM BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST FRONTAL ANALYSIS COMPARED WITH MODEL DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALL BUT BLF WILL REMAIN VFR THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE WRN SLOPES NEAR BLF/LWB AROUND 09-11Z/05-07AM. KEPT VCSH IN AT BLF. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MVFR CIGS AT BLF FOR A SMALL PERIOD OF TIME. AIRMASS IS STILL DRY...AND THE MOS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENSE FOG AT LWB LATE TONIGHT. WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING...DO NOT FORESEE THIS HAPPENING. AT WORST...LWB COULD DROP TO 3 OR 4SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT BLF/LWB AROUND 10-13Z...AND AT ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND ROANOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS IN ROANOKE...HAVE POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE AND NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ019-020-022>024. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS/WP FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 072239 AAA AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 639 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST NE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN OFFSHORE. A LEE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM W MD SOUTHWARD TO W NC. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FEW-SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NORTH OF THE RIDGE AS THE SFC GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTN WILL LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DIURNALLY FORCED CU SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF KRIC. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER.. LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FRONT DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT... BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE SETUP AND ONLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT (PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES). LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1420S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLE WITH THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S... WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION... IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD... WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMITED POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST NO OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN OFFSHORE. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS AREA SOUTHWEST. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NORTH OF THE RIDGE AS THE SFC GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DIURNALLY FORCED CU SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KRIC AND KSBY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE KECG WHICH WILL BE MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. LEE TROFINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE A MORE WESTWARD SFC WIND AND A BIT STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SCT-BKN ALTO/CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE MAINLY DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY CIGS ABOVE 5KFT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE WED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. -BLAES && .MARINE... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WIND IS INCREASING OVER THE LOWER BAY AND NEARING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT FLAG WAS RAISED FOR THE LOWER BAY COINCIDENT WITH THE INHERITED FLAG TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST NE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS NORTHEAST NC. LATEST MARINE OBS INDICATE MAINLY S TO SSW WINDS AT 10-14KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CHES BAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING 20 KTS. WINDS ARE LIGHTER FURTHER SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE. PATTERN TONIGHT OF WARM ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SHIFTING HIGH CENTER SUGGESTS WINDS TO REMAIN UP TONIGHT. NAM/SREF GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS 15-20KTS OF S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA OVER THE CEN/NRN PTNS OF CHES BAY. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA INTO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND OVERNIGHT WED. SFC GRADIENT IS MODEST BUT STRENGTHENING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY DELTA TEMPS AROUND 12C WOULD SUPPORT A WINDOW OF 18-25 KT WINDS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THU OVER CHES BAY AND THE CSTL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. -BLAES && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BLAES MARINE...BLAES/AJZ 000 FXUS61 KRNK 071927 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 327 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS TO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE THIS COMING WEEKEND AS BOTH A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 19Z...300 PM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MICHIGAN AND CURVED SOUTHWEST IN INDIANA TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. OUR AREA WAS EXPERIENCING A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO IN THE PIEDMONTS OF VA AND NC. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WAS OVER SE WV. AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER TO YIELD QUICKLY TO CLEAR SKIES WITHIN AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF SUNSET. RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MEAN A PRETTY QUICK FALL IN TEMPERATURES. BY 900 PM...TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 400 AM WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ENTER PARTS OF SE WV...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN THIS TIME AND 800 AM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ALL THE THE REGION BY 1000 AM...BUT EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS MAY APPROACH 25 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF ROANOKE. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 90S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL BE MORE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS EVEN HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 850 MB DRY SO NO UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROF IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 00Z THURSDAY(8PM WEDNESDAY) WITH 5H MB HEIGHTS ONLY SLIGHTLY RISING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. NO REASON TO DEPART MUCH FROM BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BUT EVEN IF THERE IS ONLY LIMITED REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOW THE UPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL ALSO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING...A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN FROM GENERALLY THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...AND MORE SOUTHERLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PREVAILING AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET AS THE INVERSION SETS UP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE WILL BE A TREND FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z...0500 AM...AND 13Z...0900 AM...WEDNESDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN AREAS WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KBLF AND KLWB MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE PASSAGE AND THE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATE OR BECOME TO ISOLATED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN THE KROA...KLYH AND KDAN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH USFS IN ROANOKE...HAVE POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE AND NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ALSO 10 HR FUELS ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE 7 PERCENT MARK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ019-020-022>024. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...DS FIRE WEATHER...DS 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 071926 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST NE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN OFFSHORE. A LEE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM W MD SOUTHWARD TO W NC. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FEW-SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NORTH OF THE RIDGE AS THE SFC GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTN WILL LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DIURNALLY FORCED CU SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF KRIC. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER.. LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE AND WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FRONT DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT... BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE SETUP AND ONLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT (PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES). LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1420S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLE WITH THE DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS AGAIN SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S... WARMEST ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION... IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD YIELD WSW TO W WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND... WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD... WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTER BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 00Z/07TH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLES... WHICH ARE PREFERRED BY HPC. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS/EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY... AS IT APPEARS THE REMNANTS OF T.S. HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC PROBABLY MORE PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS ON SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE... WITH A LOCATIONS ALONG SE COASTAL VA AND NE COASTAL NC POSSIBLY BEING A BIT WARMER... LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS MODELS NOW SHOW AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO 1400 METERS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE... AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER... WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL LIMITED POPS TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ANYWAY. THE GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH THE FRONT OUT AND LINGER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... IF THE GFS VERIFIES... WE ARE LIKELY TO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST NO OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN OFFSHORE. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS AREA SOUTHWEST. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NORTH OF THE RIDGE AS THE SFC GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DIURNALLY FORCED CU SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KRIC AND KSBY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE KECG WHICH WILL BE MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. LEE TROFINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE A MORE WESTWARD SFC WIND AND A BIT STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SCT-BKN ALTO/CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE MAINLY DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY CIGS ABOVE 5KFT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE WED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. -BLAES && .MARINE... AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST NE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS NORTHEAST NC. LATEST MARINE OBS INDICATE MAINLY S TO SSW WINDS AT 10-14KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CHES BAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING 20 KTS. WINDS ARE LIGHTER FURTHER SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC RIDGE. PATTERN TONIGHT OF WARM ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SHIFTING HIGH CENTER SUGGESTS WINDS TO REMAIN UP TONIGHT. NAM/SREF GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS 15-20KTS OF S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA OVER THE CEN/NRN PTNS OF CHES BAY. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA INTO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND OVERNIGHT WED. SFC GRADIENT IS MODEST BUT STRENGTHENING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY DELTA TEMPS AROUND 12C WOULD SUPPORT A WINDOW OF 18-25 KT WINDS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THU OVER CHES BAY AND THE CSTL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF THESE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. -BLAES && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BLAES MARINE...BLAES 000 FXUS61 KLWX 071924 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 324 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIPRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TNGT AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST PUSHES THRU THE OH VLY THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK WED MRNG. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP BREAKING UP AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM NOW SHOWS PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE ENTIRE CWA. THINK THE 12Z NAM IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE SITUATED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HINDER LIFT EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. WHILE SOME OF THE PERIPHERAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM HERMINE MAY MEET UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW...IT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT OUR AREA. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER LATE TNGT/ERY MRNG ACROSS THE FAR WRN ZONES...BUT REMAIN DRY FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE MRNG...AND PUSH THRU LOWER SRN MD BY THE ERY AFTN. AFTER AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA IN THE MRNG...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN QUICKLY DRIES OUT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. SEE FIRE SECTION FOR DISCUSSION OF FIRE THREAT ON WED. DAYTIME HIGHS WED WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS TO MU80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DAYTIME FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW ENSURING DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS /ANY SKY COVER WOULD BE HIGH CLOUDS/. COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PREVENT DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS AROUND 60F EAST OF I-95...LOW TO MID 50S INLAND...LOW 40S FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS OUT WEST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS IT BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY NWLY FLOW WITH SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS MAX TEMPS LIMITED TO UPPER 70S /JUST BELOW NORMAL/. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE QUICKER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF FOR A SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROPA ATTM. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HERMINE SHOULD BE PICKED UP FROM THIS SYSTEM...SO HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...THOUGH A WEST TO EAST FROPA WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERING PRECIP AS IT PASSES THE APPALACHIANS. MORE HIGH PRESSURE POST FROPA. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND WED. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE TERMINALS WED MRNG. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY A WINDSHIFT FROM THE WEST. DURING THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. POST FROPA WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH VFR CONDS WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT COLD FRONT IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TNGT AND WED. WINDS SHOULD RELAX A BIT THIS EVE IN AREAS NOT PRONE TO SLY CHANNELING /E.G. CENTRAL AND NRN TIDAL POTOMAC AND NRN MOST CHSPK BAY/ WHERE THE SCA IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR TNGT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS LATE WED MRNG INTO THE ERY AFTN. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MD BAY/SRN TIDAL POTOMAC AND EASTERN TRIBUTARIES /NOT PATAPSCO OR PAX RIVER/ WITH POST FROPA WLY/NWLY COOL FLOW MIXING DOWN OVER THE WARM WATER. NEAR SCA NWLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AND UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...SCA/S MORE LIKELY IF WIND IS ABLE TO VEER TO NLY AND CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BELOW SIX PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PLEASE NOTE- BURNING BAN FOR ERN WV PANHANDLE WENT INTO EFFECT THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE TNGT INTO WED. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND MIN AFTN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY LOW FUEL MOISTURE. AFTER TALKING TO STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...A A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCLUSION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS IN VA /WHERE WINDS WILL LIGHTER/. WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS IN THE MRNG WHEN WRNG HEADLINE DECISIONS ARE MADE. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED FIRE WX THREAT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021-025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502. WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ531>534- 537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...JRK SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...BAJ AVIATION...BAJ/JRK MARINE...BAJ/JRK FIRE WEATHER...JRK/BAJ 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 071750 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 145 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SE VA AND NE NC. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL BIT OF REMNANT STRATO-CU WEST OF SOUTH HILL. MORNING ROABS FROM KGSO/KRNK/KLWX/KWAL DEPICT A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATO-CU AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT KLWX. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH 500 HPA RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE REGION. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE S/SW LATE TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY SUPPORT INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH COOLER TEMP NEAR THE WATER. DEW POINTS WILL BECOME TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR S VA AND NE NC LATE TODAY WITH THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NW ZONES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRO THE NW. WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP MINS UP FROM PAST MORNINGS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTED WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK (MAINLY DRY) SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. STILL NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AKQ CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FROPA AS THE FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE- STARVED AND LTL IN THE WAY OF LIFT TO SPEAK OF THRU THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY FORECAST AND INCREASING CLD TREND FOR THE LTR AFTERNOON/ERY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE MID-90S....MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. CLEARING SKIES WED NIGHT AS FRONT SINKS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. STAYED JUST BELOW COOLER ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE (MAV) U50S- L60S MOST ZONES. THURSDAY... MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE BETWEEN UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN STREAM UPR LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE ORIENTED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...RESULTANT NW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT MAXIMA TO FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L/M80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE MID ATLANTIC IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. COOL N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE MID 80S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES. GFS/ECMWF INCREASE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER BASED ON DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN BASED ON DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DRY ECMWF AND RELATIVELY WETTER GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTN. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LCOATED JUST NO OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN OFFSHORE. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RICHMOND AND HAMPTONS ROADS AREA SOUTHWEST. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NORTH OF THE RIDGE AS THE SFC GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DIURNALLY FORCED CU SHOULD WANE AROUND SUNSET WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KRIC AND KSBY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE KECG WHICH WILL BE MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. LEE TROFINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE A MORE WESTWARD SFC WIND AND A BIT STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SCT-BKN ALTO/CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE MAINLY DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY CIGS ABOVE 5KFT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE WED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVEN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. -BLAES && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE NC THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW EARLY ON WED AND PUSHES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LATER ON WED. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT NO PRECIP AND RESTRICTION TO VSBY. WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING SSW AT 8-15KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAY WITH SOME GUSTS ARND 20 KTS. WINDS LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL NC. NAM/SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 15-20KTS OF S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA OVER THE CEN/NRN PTNS OF CHES BAY. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...EXPECT A WINDSHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND OVERNIGHT WED. SFC GRADIENT IS MODEST BUT STRENGTHENING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (WATER SFC-900 MB DELTA TEMPS AROUND 12C) WOULD SUPPORT A WINDOW OF 18-25 KT WINDS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THU OVER CHES BAY AND THE CSTL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED THAT DIURNAL MIXING OVER LAND THIS TIME OF YEAR TENDS TO DISRUPT THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER WATER DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH FULL SUN...AND AS SUCH ANY SCA CONDITIONS REALIZED WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AM WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE ON THU. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED COOL AIR ALOFT (WATER SFC-900 MB DELTA T`S ~12C)...COULD SEE ANOTHER NRLY SURGE (MORE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS) THU NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI. -BLAES/BKH && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS..BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...BLAES MARINE...BLAES/BKH 000 FXUS61 KRNK 071737 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 137 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK...MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE FORECAST UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT TWO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THOSE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED VALUES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ALSO...CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A GOOD 3 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD BE. HAVE INCREASED DEW POINT VALUES TO BE IN LINE WITH THESE VALUES...BUT HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE EXPECTATION THAT VALUES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT SINCE WE ARE STARTING AT A HIGHER MAXIMUM VALUE...THE LOWEST READINGS OF THE AFTERNOON WILL NOW BE HIGHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG S/W TROF SCOOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. MODELS BRING A DECAYING BAND OF DEEPER RH AND PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING PROVIDED ENOUGH RH/LIFT. SINCE MOVING INTO QUITE A WEST WIND REGIME ALOFT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE 20ISH POPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE COULD DRY UP OR SPLIT ON THE RIDGES. ELSW MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EAST WITH MORE OF A LOW DECK SE WVA INTO SW VA BY DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP LOWS ABOUT A CAT IN SPOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE VALLEYS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES PER BETTER RAD COOLING EARLY ON. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL JUMP TO A LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FADE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 85H WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL DISSECT THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION ACTIVITY GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA. WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY WIND ALOFT...NOT CONFIDENT ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THE THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...AND THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY TO POSSIBLY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM/ECMWF IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WHERE THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL BRING 30-40 PERCENT TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AT 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS COULD PLAY HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS/CLOUDS COMING ACROSS IN THE MORNING. THE EAST LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUN THAN RAIN...AND THEREFORE COULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST JET TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FRONT SINKS TO THE SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WITH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL...MORE SO IN VALLEYS THAN RIDGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL TROPICAL STORM HERMINE GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF SO...THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PROVIDER OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...IT MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN FROM GENERALLY THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...AND MORE SOUTHERLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PREVAILING AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET AS THE INVERSION SETS UP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE WILL BE A TREND FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z...0500 AM...AND 13Z...0900 AM...WEDNESDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN AREAS WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KBLF AND KLWB MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE PASSAGE AND THE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATE OR BECOME TO ISOLATED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN THE KROA...KLYH AND KDAN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ORGANIZED SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION AS A WARM THEN A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT MOST NIGHTS...PROMOTING GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO RAIN THREAT THIS WEEK...SO FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL...LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...REB AVIATION...DS FIRE WEATHER... 000 FXUS61 KAKQ 071727 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 125 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SE VA AND NE NC. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL BIT OF REMNANT STRATO-CU WEST OF SOUTH HILL. MORNING ROABS FROM KGSO/KRNK/KLWX/KWAL DEPICT A RATHER DRY AIR MASS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATO-CU AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT KLWX. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH 500 HPA RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE REGION. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH TODAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE S/SW LATE TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY SUPPORT INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH COOLER TEMP NEAR THE WATER. DEW POINTS WILL BECOME TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR S VA AND NE NC LATE TODAY WITH THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NW ZONES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRO THE NW. WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP MINS UP FROM PAST MORNINGS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTED WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK (MAINLY DRY) SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. STILL NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AKQ CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FROPA AS THE FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE- STARVED AND LTL IN THE WAY OF LIFT TO SPEAK OF THRU THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY FORECAST AND INCREASING CLD TREND FOR THE LTR AFTERNOON/ERY EVENING HOURS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE MID-90S....MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. CLEARING SKIES WED NIGHT AS FRONT SINKS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. STAYED JUST BELOW COOLER ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE (MAV) U50S- L60S MOST ZONES. THURSDAY... MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE BETWEEN UPR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN STREAM UPR LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE ORIENTED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...RESULTANT NW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT MAXIMA TO FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L/M80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE MID ATLANTIC IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. COOL N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE MID 80S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES. GFS/ECMWF INCREASE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER BASED ON DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN BASED ON DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DRY ECMWF AND RELATIVELY WETTER GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE OBS SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. BASED ON OB TRENDS THUS FAR OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT THE LIGHT GRADIENT S/SW SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF KECG (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGE AXIS). GRANTED...SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVG AOB 5 KTS...HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE THE DVLPMNT OF SHALLOW RADIATION FOG. AGAIN THINK KECG HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE DECOUPLING SFC WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER THIS SITE. HEATING AND MIXING WILL CLEAR ANY FOG BY 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT THROUGH OUT THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WED BRINGING IN MORE CLOUDS...A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES..AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NE NC THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW EARLY ON WED AND PUSHES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LATER ON WED. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT NO PRECIP AND RESTRICTION TO VSBY. WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING SSW AT 8-15KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAY WITH SOME GUSTS ARND 20 KTS. WINDS LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL NC. NAM/SREF GUIDCANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 15-20KTS OF S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA OVER THE CEN/NRN PTNS OF CHES BAY. AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...EXPECT A WINDSHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND OVERNIGHT WED. SFC GRADIENT IS MODEST BUT STRENGTHENING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (WATER SFC-900 MB DELTA TEMPS AROUND 12C) WOULD SUPPORT A WINDOW OF 18-25 KT WINDS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THU OVER CHES BAY AND THE CSTL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED THAT DIURNAL MIXING OVER LAND THIS TIME OF YEAR TENDS TO DISRUPT THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER WATER DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH FULL SUN...AND AS SUCH ANY SCA CONDITIONS REALIZED WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AM WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE ON THU. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUED COOL AIR ALOFT (WATER SFC-900 MB DELTA T`S ~12C)...COULD SEE ANOTHER NRLY SURGE (MORE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS) THU NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI. -BLAES/BKH && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS..BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES/MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...BKH MARINE...BLAES/BKH 000 FXUS61 KRNK 071644 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1244 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK...MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE FORECAST UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT TWO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THOSE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED VALUES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ALSO...CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A GOOD 3 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD BE. HAVE INCREASED DEW POINT VALUES TO BE IN LINE WITH THESE VALUES...BUT HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE EXPECTATION THAT VALUES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT SINCE WE ARE STARTING AT A HIGHER MAXIMUM VALUE...THE LOWEST READINGS OF THE AFTERNOON WILL NOW BE HIGHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG S/W TROF SCOOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT. MODELS BRING A DECAYING BAND OF DEEPER RH AND PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING PROVIDED ENOUGH RH/LIFT. SINCE MOVING INTO QUITE A WEST WIND REGIME ALOFT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE 20ISH POPS LATE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE COULD DRY UP OR SPLIT ON THE RIDGES. ELSW MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EAST WITH MORE OF A LOW DECK SE WVA INTO SW VA BY DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP LOWS ABOUT A CAT IN SPOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE VALLEYS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES PER BETTER RAD COOLING EARLY ON. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL JUMP TO A LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FADE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 85H WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL DISSECT THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION ACTIVITY GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF RNK CWA. WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY WIND ALOFT...NOT CONFIDENT ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THE THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...AND THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY TO POSSIBLY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM/ECMWF IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WHERE THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL BRING 30-40 PERCENT TO MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...MAINLY SOUTHWEST...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AT 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS COULD PLAY HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS/CLOUDS COMING ACROSS IN THE MORNING. THE EAST LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUN THAN RAIN...AND THEREFORE COULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST JET TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FRONT SINKS TO THE SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WITH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL...MORE SO IN VALLEYS THAN RIDGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL TROPICAL STORM HERMINE GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF SO...THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PROVIDER OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...IT MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS PUSHING NE OUT OF N CAROLINA WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR TO KDAN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE MIXES OUT BY MID MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WORK INTO KLYH BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE QUITE BRIEF IF AT ALL SO LIKELY WONT INCLUDE MENTION PENDING EARLY VISIBLE PICS. LOOKS LIKE AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ALONG THE RIVER AROUND KLWB WHERE WILL LIKELY ONLY TEMPO AN HOUR OR SO OF LOWER VSBY IN FOG. OTRW EXPECT ANY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH ONLY SOME SCTD CU AROUND IN SPOTS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND COULD SPREAD A CANOPY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA INTO THE SE WVA SITES BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE AT KBLF/KLWB. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHC THREAT OF MVFR CIGS AND SHRA TO BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG MAINLY DURING WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT THREAT OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT MOST NIGHTS...PROMOTING GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO RAIN THREAT THIS WEEK...SO FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL...LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...REB AVIATION...JH/JJ/WP FIRE WEATHER... US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team Disclaimer Information Quality Credits Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities
Massachusetts Tide Charts
